Don’t trust AOV alone — it can rise while business shrinks
JetMetrics Weekly #007
Table of contents:
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Article
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Don’t trust AOV alone — it can rise while business shrinks
AOV is one of those metrics that’s always around. It’s simple to track, easy to explain, and often treated as a sign of healthy growth.
But a higher AOV doesn’t always mean things are going well. Sometimes it grows for the right reasons — like better retention or smart upsells. Other times, it goes up because something’s going wrong in the background.
In this article, we’ll go through 8 examples where rising AOV isn’t as positive as it looks — plus a quick checklist for spotting real, healthy growth.
🔴 Red zone – AOV growth that hides real trouble
These are the cases where rising AOV masks underlying problems that hurt your business.
AOV ↑ + Conversion rate ↓
Price push is backfiring
You raised prices or removed entry-level products — and while order value went up, fewer people are buying. It looks like growth, but you may have priced out a chunk of your audience.
⚠️ Why this is a problem
You’re increasing value per order at the cost of total sales. Especially risky for acquisition, where affordability matters most.
What to check or try
Compare CR across price segments. If mid-tier products perform worse than before, test bringing back cheaper options or value bundles to broaden accessibility.
AOV ↑ + Profit margin ↓
Heavy discounting
Big orders are rolling in, but they’re loaded with discounts. Promotions, bundles, and bulk offers inflate AOV while eating into your margins.
⚠️ Why this is a problem
Your growth isn’t profitable. You’re training customers to expect lower prices and eroding your pricing power.
What to check or try
Track AOV vs. margin per order. If your biggest orders have the lowest margins, rebalance offers: make sure promos drive volume and margin, not just basket size.
AOV ↑ + LTV ↓
One-time splurges
You’re attracting shoppers who buy big once and disappear. These might be gift buyers, sale chasers, or hype traffic, but they don’t stick.
⚠️ Why this is a problem
High AOV creates a false sense of success if customers don’t return. CAC doesn’t pay off, and retention drops.
What to check or try
Segment customers by order count and cohort. If most high-AOV orders come from one-time buyers, you’re not building loyalty. Look for ways to bring them back — email flows, retention offers, or content that creates ongoing value.
🟡 Yellow zone – AOV growth that needs a closer look
These aren’t always bad, but they can be misleading, fragile, or suboptimal. You need to dig deeper before celebrating.
AOV ↑ + Items per order ↓
Luxury skew
Customers are buying fewer items, but more expensive ones. This could reflect a shift toward premium products or a shrinking product mix.
⚠️ Why this is a problem
You may be over-relying on high-priced SKUs while losing cross-sell or mid-tier opportunities.
What to check or try
Compare items per order by segment and product type. If higher AOV comes from fewer, more expensive SKUs, test ways to reintroduce variety — bundles, cross-sells, or curated collections that increase basket depth.
AOV ↑ + Add-to-cart rate ↓
Price shock
People browse, but don’t add. Product pages may look good — until the price kills intent.
⚠️ Why this is a problem
You’re drawing interest but not converting it into action. Something in your pricing or value messaging creates friction.
What to check or try
Monitor ATC rate by price and product page. If expensive items get views but no adds, your pricing might feel too steep too early. Try price anchoring, installment options, or bundling with lower-priced items to ease the jump.
AOV ↑ + Share of 1-SKU orders ↑
One product drives growth
Your AOV is rising, but it’s mostly thanks to one popular product. Everything else stays flat.
⚠️ Why this is a problem
You're overly dependent on one SKU. If it underperforms, so does your entire store.
What to check or try
Look at which SKUs are driving the increase in AOV. If most of the growth comes from a single product, test ways to support it — highlight complementary items, update recommendations, or bundle to build more balanced baskets.
AOV ↑ + Avg. items per order =
Price change, not behavior
The number of items per order hasn’t changed — just their prices. This could be due to inflation, new products, or seasonal effects.
⚠️ Why this is a problem
You’re not driving better shopping behavior — just charging more. The growth may be temporary or external.
What to check or try
Compare average price per item over time. If AOV grew only because prices went up — not because behavior changed — test upsell flows, bundle logic, or merchandising to actually influence how people shop.
AOV ↑ + Profit margin ↑ + Conversion rate =
Healthy upsell (but check CR)
You’re selling more valuable orders without discounts — great! But conversion isn’t improving, which means some users still hesitate to buy.
⚠️ Why this is a problem
You’re leaving potential on the table. Some buyers may be overwhelmed by pricing or missing incentives to convert.
What to check or try
Segment new vs. returning users to see who’s responding to your upsell strategy. If CR is flat among new customers, they may be hesitating — try clearer value messaging, easier entry points, or incentives that reduce first-time friction
When AOV growth is real
Don’t celebrate rising AOV in isolation. Celebrate it when it’s supported by these fundamentals:
☐ LTV is growing
It means customers aren’t just spending more once — they’re coming back and bringing more value over time.
☐ Profit margin is increasing
You’re earning more and keeping more, which means the growth is sustainable — not driven by discounts.
☐ Repeat rate is rising
Customers aren’t just placing bigger orders — they’re choosing to shop with you again, which is a strong sign of satisfaction.
☐ Order volume stays healthy
AOV is going up, but you’re not losing scale. That means you’re creating more value per order without shrinking your customer base.
Real AOV growth isn’t about higher numbers. It’s about better customers, better economics, and more consistent buying behavior.
Final thoughts
AOV is easy to track, and just as easy to overvalue. It often gets treated like a shorthand for growth, but that can lead to the wrong calls.
Maybe you raise prices and lose too many first-time buyers. Maybe you lean on discounts and watch your margins disappear. Maybe you chase big orders and miss the fact that customers never come back.
If you’re using AOV to measure progress, make sure you’re checking what’s happening around it: margin, retention, volume, behavior.
Because AOV isn’t the goal. The goal is a business that earns more, keeps more, and keeps people coming back.
LinkedIn post of the week
Coming Soon: Google Ads 2.0
We’ve started updating our most-used dashboard, and we’re still gathering ideas.
If you’d like to influence the final version, message me on LinkedIn by August 15.
Haven’t seen the current one? It’s here.
Happy analyzing 🫶
See you next week!
Dmitry from JetMetrics